Ukraine Makes a Move

[mister_coffee]

Ukraine is at it again!

[Rideback]

"Ukraine Officially Invited to NATO Summit in The Hague, Zelensky Confirms
President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that Ukraine has received an official invitation to participate in the upcoming NATO summit, scheduled for June 24–25 in The Hague.
“We received the invitation — I consider this an important step,” Zelensky said, following his meeting with the Secretary General of the Alliance.
The invitation marks a significant moment in Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to strengthen ties with NATO amid continued security challenges."

[just-jim]

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Another long-term project apparently. News on NPR this morning said the Ukrainian divers placed 1100 kg of explosives underwater over a period of months.
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[mister_coffee]

Apparently Ukraine just hit the Kerch bridge. Looks like explosives (a lot of explosives) on one of the bridge supports. It isn't yet clear how they pulled that off.

Russia and Vladimir Putin are having a very bad week.

[Rideback]

Yes, and my understanding is a number of these planes were ones capable of attacking the US, which had been a concern for years. Thank you Ukraine.

There is another aspect to start thinking about. Trump has been mumbling about how Putin has changed and isn't a good guy any longer. But after this attack that blindsided Putin it's worth thinking that from Putin's perspective Trump may have outlived his usefulness. Mutual distrust is in the air.

[mister_coffee]

A couple of things are becoming more clear.

There have been a lot of reports that the Russian Strategic Bomber Force has between 70 and 90 aircraft. However about half of those are not operational or even remotely flyable. So proportionately the damage this attack did is likely much worse.

Many of the aircraft which were hit were fully loaded and fueled for a large-scale attack on Ukraine planned for later that day. So I am wondering if that was blind luck or superb timing.

At least one A-50 AWACS aircraft has been reported destroyed. This is a Big Deal if confirmed because it leaves Russia with insufficient AWACS aircraft to provide 24x7 radar coverage of the war in Ukraine. Which gives Ukraine opportunities for more effective attacks.

At least a couple of the destroyed aircraft were transport aircraft which were probably configured to mid-air refuel the bombers. Which is important to us because the only way those bombers could reach the United States is if they were refueled in flight.

[PAL]

Hey folks, you too can have your very own defensive drone on your own property for only $695 now on sale. Sale is on for the next few days. Hurry while supplies last. Once in a lifetime offer.

[Rideback]

Russia has launched retaliatory attacks today. Peace talks are still on the schedule. Here's a you tube by Alexander Vindman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ND3uMOjDnkU&t=6s

[mister_coffee]

The Ukrainian operation will be studied in military textbooks for decades to come.

I'm fervently hoping the US Military is studying it right now. No reason you couldn't do the same thing here and get away just as clean.

There was apparently one attack that completely failed on Unkrainka airbase near Khabarovsk, which is over 6000km from Ukraine. It isn't clear why but there is video of the burnt-out trailer along a highway.

The containers were assembled in a warehouse in Chelyabinsk, which is inside of Russia near Kazakhstan. It also explains how the operatives were able to sneak out of Russia so easily before things got going.

The Ukrainians also trained a small AI to guide the drones into the most vulnerable parts of the target aircraft. They had examples of Tu-95s, Tu-22s, and Tu-160s at an aviation museum that they used to do the training.

If, God forbid, there is another civil war in this country FPV drones are going to be the weapon of choice.

[Rideback]

Ukrainian account
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Seven facts about Operation “Spiderweb” — a Ukrainian strike that will go down in history as one of the most successful special operations ever conducted.
1. Ukrainian special forces spent 1.5 years preparing and planning the attack.
2. Special cargo containers were custom-designed (see photos) to conceal drones. The drones were hidden in wooden boxes mounted beneath the container roofs.
3. Unwitting russian drivers were hired to transport the trucks near russian air bases. The total distance to the targets was approximately 5,000 kilometers.
4. The roofs of the cargo trucks were remotely opened, releasing a swarm of drones that flew directly toward russia’s long-range bombers (see photos).
5. After launching, the trailers self-destructed to avoid detection or recovery (see photos).
6. The strikes hit four russian airfields (see photos), damaging or destroying over 40 russian aircraft, including A-50 surveillance planes, Tu-95s, and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers. The attack reportedly disabled 34% of russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers.
7. According to Ukraine’s Security Service, Operation Spiderweb inflicted an estimated $7 billion in damage on russia’s strategic aviation.
This is one of the greatest russian defeats in modern history — not just a blow, but a surgical strike against the core of russia’s long-range strike capabilities.
The Ukrainian operation will be studied in military textbooks for decades to come.
This is how you stop a war: by crippling your enemy’s ability to wage it.
Slava Ukraini.

[just-jim]

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Now -

5 or more different attacks, including one in Siberia! 40+ planes destroyed, $7 Billion. Also, numerous road and railroad bridges destroyed - the ones that bring Russian armaments towards Ukraine.

Hmmmm….if you were going to take 18 months to put this together and pull it off….I’d bet this isn't the only bunch of drones inside Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... icial-says
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[mister_coffee]

I have to admit it is kind cool that you can use a modified $500 drone to take out an aircraft worth more than $100 million.

Most of the stuff the Ukrainians have done to drones is documented very well online and there are literally how-to videos on how you'd modify them to turn them into a weapon and the best ways you'd set up the software.

And there is a huge aftermarket in various gadgets that have obvious applications to turn a toy into a killer drone.

[mister_coffee]

From what we are hearing so far that sounds like about half of Russia's strategic bomber force was destroyed in one attack. The intent of this operation is obviously to force Russia to end the war and withdraw from Ukraine.

I'd not be surprised if there are more trucks full of drones scattered about Russia at this point in time.

[Rideback]

I'm now seeing reports of up to $7B in losses and that this is just the beginning with ongoing strikes happening now. Neither Trump nor his admin were notified.

[mister_coffee]

The news is that Ukraine may have destroyed over 40 Russian Strategic Bombers, worth north of $2 billion, with a few hundred toy FPV drones like you can buy on Amazon for $500. There are also unconfirmed reports they destroyed a ballistic missile submarine at Severomorsk.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgrg7kelk45t

The drones were in some cases operated autonomously (with AI) or controlled through Russia's mobile phone network by operators in Ukraine.

The strategic aircraft Russia losses in this operation are impossible for them to replace.