Trump bombs Iran, what could possibly go wrong?

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AI strikes are killing supply chain for helium. And that matters.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... ence-chip/

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YouGov poll has Trump at 32% approval today and only 12% approve of the Iranian attacks

https://bsky.app/profile/robertscotthor ... brsqsk6s2j

[mister_coffee]

Fallout: Hyundai reports EV sales up 340 percent in March.

Donald Trump is going to go down in history as the greatest electric car salesman ever.

[mister_coffee]

We also apparently lost an E-3. We only have sixteen of them, well now, fifteen. And we aren't supposed to lose them.

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Drone warfare. Ignore at your own expense.
https://thinc.blog/2026/03/28/drones-wa ... eeping-on/

[mister_coffee]

It is very disturbing that there is so little information about The War getting back to us. Or at least it is all getting delayed. The destruction of KC-135 tankers by a missile attack which had the MAGA chuds all going crazy last week has now been confirmed by satellite imagery. That's probably just the tip of the iceberg.

There have been unconfirmed reports on Telegram that at least some US bases in the Gulf have been evacuated. This has been described in WH and Pentagon press releases as "staff working remotely." LOLz.

[PAL]

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/new-world- ... n=pescobar

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US has already lost at least 4 military to the targeting provided by their phones which have ad trackers.

[mister_coffee]

That's ten thousand more targets.

There was apparently a drone attack from someone in the southeast.

And I'd keep in mind that there have been no official casualty reports for almost two weeks. I doubt they are keeping it quiet because the news is good.

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Conversation about fertilizer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahlH32Lprto

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Meidas Touch:
"BREAKING: Russia is now stepping in to support Iran with direct shipments of critical supplies, including drones.
According to the Financial Times, citing officials briefed on the matter, Russia has begun a phased transfer of drones, along with medicine and food, to Iran. The shipments reportedly started in early March and are already underway.
This marks a significant escalation in the growing alliance between Moscow and Tehran. Russia isn’t just offering diplomatic cover. It’s now actively helping sustain Iran as the conflict intensifies.
We’ve already seen reports that Russia has been sharing intelligence and drone tactics with Iran, drawing from its experience in Ukraine. Now, with actual drone shipments entering the equation, the stakes are rising even further.
Bottom line: this conflict is expanding, and global powers are getting more directly involved."

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The Arithmetic of Enlistment, When the Military Changes the Math….
When a nation commits to a military conflict the first thing it measures is the inventory of its hardware. The second is the inventory of its personnel. When that second inventory begins to run low the state has a limited number of options to replenish the ranks. It can implement a draft or it can change the definition of who is fit to serve in a volunteer force. This week the military chose the latter and the adjustments point to a profound shift in how the armed forces are building their numbers.
The Army has quietly distributed an expedited revision to its personnel policies extending the maximum age for enlistment from 35 to 42. At the same time the service has officially dropped the waiver requirement for recruits with a single conviction for marijuana possession or drug paraphernalia. These changes take effect in April and apply across the Regular Army the Army National Guard and the Army Reserves. It is a sweeping overhaul of the entry criteria.
This is a significant structural shift driven by years of demographic realities. For several recruiting cycles the Pentagon has been dealing with missed enlistment goals and a shrinking pool of eligible young Americans. The military has attempted marketing campaigns aimed at younger generations and preparatory courses for those who cannot pass basic physical standards. Now they are simply expanding the parameters of the demographic entirely.
By raising the enlistment cap to 42 the Army is bringing its standards in line with the Air Force the Space Force and the Coast Guard. Military officials are openly stating that they are targeting a more mature audience. They are looking for technical expertise and professional experience that a typical 18 year old recruit simply does not possess. They need personnel who can handle complex systems and older recruits bring a different baseline of life experience.
There is a known operational cost to this shift. Military data indicates that older recruits face higher washout rates during basic training and are more susceptible to physical attrition. The human body at 40 does not recover the same way it does at 20. But the planners at the Pentagon have run the numbers and decided that the acquisition of technical skills and the sheer need for warm bodies outweigh the risks of physical wear and tear.
The removal of the marijuana waiver is an acknowledgment of shifting domestic laws and social norms. In a country where cannabis is increasingly legalized at the state level disqualifying a massive percentage of the population over a single minor possession charge is no longer mathematically viable for a volunteer force. It removes an administrative hurdle that used to take months to clear freeing up recruiters to process applicants much faster.
The timing of this expedited policy revision cannot be separated from the current geopolitical reality. We are in the fourth week of a major regional conflict in the Middle East. The administration is actively surging thousands of troops into the theater including an additional deployment of roughly one thousand soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division. The operational tempo is increasing rapidly.
The military is expanding its recruiting net precisely as the demand for ground forces increases. The all volunteer model relies on a steady stream of young people willing to enlist. But as the prospect of a protracted overseas deployment becomes a daily reality on the news that stream is facing serious headwinds. The traditional recruiting base is watching the escalation in real time and the recruiting data suggests a hesitation among the primary demographic.
You cannot sustain a massive troop surge without the personnel to backfill the ranks. When the younger demographic hesitates the state must look elsewhere. By raising the age limit to 42 the military is opening the door to older adults who may be looking for economic stability or a career pivot rather than relying solely on recent high school graduates. It is a pragmatic solution to a deeply complex manpower shortage.
This is the cold arithmetic of military readiness in 2026. The regulations have been adjusted because the reality on the ground demanded it. The standards are shifting not out of preference but out of structural necessity. When the state needs to fill the ranks for a widening conflict it will adjust the barriers to entry until the quotas are met. The record requires us to look at the numbers and the numbers show a military adapting its rules to feed the deployment cycle.
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Russia Russia Russia
https://www.ft.com/content/615309d5-5aa ... 25a6b1a6=1

[mister_coffee]

This doesn't look like a great investment right now:

https://apnews.com/article/ai-data-cent ... 7ab4eb68ee

A 10Gw data center power by natural gas. What could possibly go wrong?

[PAL]

"The Black Swan" is on the way from the library. I need a review. Talib must talk about long tails in it.
What's it going to take for the American people to get really pissed off, knowing they have been lied to, information of 3200 commercial ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz being withheld and the sheer stupidity of what T has done.
The Accelerationists must be happy.

[mister_coffee]

And of course the farmers are facing major issues trying to resource fertilizer this season, not to mention labor.

That's what that 45-day cliff about two weeks from now is all about.

[Rideback]

And of course the farmers are facing major issues trying to resource fertilizer this season, not to mention labor.

[mister_coffee]

It seems pretty likely that futures markets are wildly underpricing where the price of a barrel of crude oil is going. I think $200 per barrel is possible (which translates to $10-$12 for a gallon of gasoline here).

There are also pretty clear cutoffs where things are going to get a lot worse. One is coming up in about two weeks when farmers across most of North America have to decide what to plant. That cutoff is pretty well locked in because it is unlikely we can get the supply chains going in two weeks.

And the long tail risks are insane and can't even be very well quantified.

[PAL]

https://rickylanusse.substack.com/p/the ... as-started

The worst admin. ever, not looking ahead, being duped by BIbi too.
Also, research Daniel Levy. Fantastic insight as to what is going on. He was a peace negotiator for previous Israeli regimes.
Israel is finding itself hungering for oil.
David you are correct. Brace youselves for higher gas prices. All because many people believed Trump's lies about no more wars and voted him in.

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For Trump it always boils down to his personal gain.
https://www.ms.now/news/trump-classifie ... ess-motive

[mister_coffee]

Or North Korea deciding right now is the best chance it will ever get against South Korea.

Honestly at this point China doesn't need to invade Taiwan to get everything it wants.

[PAL]

Just wait til China decides to move on Taiwan. They are waiting. And when they do the US won't be able to do anything about it. Maybe that is what the T adlmin. wants.
And this is false: "But the American public is trying to draw operational conclusions about a war being fought in their name. That is the function of a free press and an informed citizenry." Even though our taxes are contributing and it is being fought in our name, we don't have a say. Oh, but we will, eventually.
Free press is going away, although Democracy Now is still going. Don't you know, we are all considered too stupid to make any kind of assessement.