Pasayten's Methow Valley Bulletin Board

Trae Crowder aka Liberal Redneck weighs in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bgW0Hs_mGs

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Good explanation of how Electoral votes make a difference, here….from PBS news tonite:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/new-p ... nning-mate

“Well, the national poll is great, right? But when we talk about what wins in the election, it is these key battleground states.

And really it's split into two categories. You have got the three states that are pure toss-ups in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which are — which make up the blue wall, right? If Kamala Harris wins each of those three states, then she's most likely going to be president of the United States.

Now, she also has a path with the Sun Belt states, where Arizona, Nevada, out West, Georgia, North Carolina, in the East. If she were to maybe add one of those, she could do a little bit worse in the Sun Belt or in the blue wall and still be able to pull it off.

For Donald Trump, though, he really needs to win those Sun Belt states, all four of them. Even with all four of those, he's only at 268 electoral votes. You need 270. He's just shy of that right now. That's why, for them, for their campaign, they think about two places, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

They're spending 77 percent of all of their ad money right now in just those two states. Why? Because he could lose everything else that we have been talking about. If he wins Pennsylvania and Georgia, he's right at 270.”
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Nate Silver's poll averages show Harris/Walz up 2.1% as of today.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silve ... olls-model

We need to keep in mind that because of how votes are distributed in the electoral college, even a 2 or 3 percent lead in the popular vote for Democrats likely translates into a nail-biting tossup in the electoral college. So complacency or needless overconfidence would be most unwise.

It will be interesting to see where the numbers land in two weeks or so after the D convention.

First rally together and the line was around the block waiting to get in. Josh Shapiro gave a barn burner of an opening speech to the chants of 'NGB, Not Going Back' and GSD Get sh** Done.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7rpTdPnY_k

A governor is a good choice, and a midwestern governor might help the ticket in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. So their plan is to hit the ground running and campaigning hard. Which I think will matter just as much as who exactly is picked.

Hopefully Kelly, Shapiro, and Buttigieg will stay on the team and keep campaigning.

Harris and Walz will be campaigning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada this week. Donald Trump and JD Vance have a campaign rally in Montana and a fundraiser in Colorado.

CNN has been told by insiders that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is the VP pick
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/06/politics ... 2950325643