How do tariffs work in real time?

[just-jim]

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A VERY Good read - or listen to. Freakonomics interviews Austin Goolsbee - President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - on how the Fed works, what FOMC does….and what some forecasts of FELON donnie’s idiotic tariffs might mean in the long and short term.

A long listen - 60+ minutes. Transcript if you want to read it.
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/fault- ... -wage-job/
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[just-jim]

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[just-jim]

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A short video from SNL, 2004, with FELON donnie hawking ‘chicken wings’ (allegedly previously deleted from SNL archives).

https://m.youtube.com/shorts/Y0YVxVFywE0

It’s TACO…20 years earlier!
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[mister_coffee]

So that is an average of one tariff change every 56 hours for four whole months.

That is psychotic. Not the art of the deal or ten dimensional chess.

[mister_coffee]

Fun fact: Trump has changed tariffs 55 times between January 21st and May 30th.

[just-jim]

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[Rideback]

2nd court, this time in Illinois has ruled that tariffs are not legal. This time the plaintiff was a toy company.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-ba ... p-tariffs/

[just-jim]

[Rideback]

Probably the biggest difference between the state budget increase and what Trump is doing is that with Trump's tariffs and his Big Beautiful Bill he is not only adding to the debt, he is cutting services AND increasing the cost of living simultaneously while giving giant tax cuts to the people who need it the least, the top crust of wealth. I don't see where Ferguson is gutting health care or funding to fight wildfires. I do see Trump doing that.

[Jingles]

Seems everyone is all up in air and worried about the "Trump" tariffs but not many concerned or expressing disapproval of the effects of the 9 Billion in new taxes signed into law by Sideshow Bob
Sure hope the petition to recall that butthole gains traction

[Rideback]

Trump is extending the tariff deadline to July 9
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-up ... =122183374

[Rideback]

Smaller companies are already just going out of business and as the supply chains dry up the ripple effect will grow by the day. Coffee is also impacted by climate change as is chocolate which is already seeing big shifts in pricing. Canada has been establishing new trade partners and is almost to a break even point of where they were before Trump's tariff war began.

The fiasco with Trump singling out Apple for a 25% tariff is illegal but the threat alone will herald more business harm. Of course coming on fast is the real time, real world issue of mechanical part shortages.

People are beginning to count the days before Trump's self imposed 90 day reprieve and note that there just hasn't been any deals made. There's been announcements but nothing in actual agreements and certainly nothing has been proposed to Congress for its blessing. Louder and louder by the day are the taunts of TACO/Trump always chickens out.

Just saw this. Europe freezes flights to US https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news ... n%20market.

[mister_coffee]

Companies that plan on raising prices because of tariffs.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/24/business ... mp-tariffs

... we know that is just the tip of the iceberg.

Especially on low-cost low-margin items we can expect price increases on the order of fifteen to twenty percent in the next thirty days.

The bigger issue is that some stuff might not be available at any price for quite some time.

And coffee prices might well see double-digit increases as well. We know that Americans react very badly to governments jacking up the price of their caffeine delivery systems.

[Rideback]

Companies that plan on raising prices because of tariffs.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/24/business ... mp-tariffs

[mister_coffee]

So now apparently that idiot is proposing 50 percent tariffs from the EU and a punitive tariff of 25% on iPhones unless they are manufactured in the US.

The abuse continues.

[mister_coffee]

You are arguing against both basic economics and history.

Ironic that conservatives used to pay a lot of lip service to things like history. And the rule of law.

[Rideback]

Prove it.

[Jingles]

Yes tariffs might cause a price increase but it will pale in comparison to how the DEMS in Olympia stabbed Washintonians in the back.
Just proves some voters should of been thrown out with the trash at birth

[Rideback]

Dow closed 800 pts down today.
I asked AI why:
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a drop today, partly due to concerns about rising US-China tensions, particularly around chip trade, and disappointing earnings from Target. Additionally, the Dow was influenced by the stock performance of UnitedHealth, which fell on an analyst downgrade. These factors contributed to a broader market downturn, with futures for the DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 also falling.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
US-China Tensions:
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Rising trade disputes and concerns about President Trump's tariffs are contributing to market anxiety.
Target's Earnings Miss:
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Target's disappointing earnings report, which also prompted questions about price increases, further fueled market volatility.
UnitedHealth Downgrade:
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An analyst downgrade of UnitedHealth, a major Dow component, caused a significant decline in its stock price, impacting the overall Dow.
Broader Market Downturn:
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The combination of these factors led to a broader decline in futures for major stock indexes, indicating a bearish outlook for the market.

[Rideback]

Target set to raise pricing because of tariffs
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/21/target- ... ToFacebook

[dorankj]

But yet, the stock market is fine. I thought we hated those people anyway? Shut up F*ckstick.

[mister_coffee]

Wal-Mart CFO: Price increases in June.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart ... nings.html

“We’re wired for everyday low prices, but the magnitude of these increases is more than any retailer can absorb.

“It’s more than any supplier can absorb.

“And so I’m concerned that the consumer is going to start seeing higher prices.

“ You’ll begin to see that, likely towards the tail end of this month, and then certainly much more in June.”

“We’re trying to navigate this the best that we can, but this is a little bit unprecedented in terms of the speed and magnitude in which the price increases are coming.”

We need to remember that the new "reduced" Trump tariffs are still larger than the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs that destroyed the world economy, caused WWII, and made the Great Depression "great".

[mister_coffee]

This is how tariffs "work" in real time for real American companies:

https://www.bikemag.com/news/this-color ... struggling

For the past 12 years, Oveja Negra has made bikepacking bags in its Salida, Colorado, factory. Beloved in the adventure cycling community for both their quality products and their brand vibe, it’s a bikepacking company created by bikepackers Lane Willson, her husband Monte, and business partner Stephanie Perko.

Oveja Negra has long sourced its sailcloth and 98 percent of bag components, including zippers, from other U.S. companies, Willson told Bike Magazine. Given this percentage, one might think that Oveja Negra is the perfect example of American manufacturing, and that it would be immune from tariff penalties and doing well in the current economic environment.

So why is Oveja Negra in a freefall, according to Willson, and forced to lay off seven skilled employees and move two others to contract, part-time positions?

“About 98 percent of everything we buy to make our bags comes from the U.S.,” Willson said. “But those U.S. companies have to get their materials from overseas, and they’re getting hit hard by the tariffs. They have to raise their prices, and we can’t keep up with those increases.”

Willson said Oveja Negra overall sales are down 30 percent, which is an unsustainable drop for a small business. Most of Oveja Negra products are sold through local bike shops in 40 states, she said. As bike shops feel the hit of bike prices increased by tariffs, they have to cut their wholesale purchases. That includes Oveja Negra.

“We’re a luxury brand,” Willson said. “Bike shops are already working on such thin margins. So when they have to pay $500, $1,000 more per bike, they have to cut costs somewhere. We’re it.”

Willson said that Oveja Negra’s international customer orders have also decreased drastically.

“Since we started in 2012, we’ve seen a consistent 10 to 15 percent annual growth, even during the pandemic.” Willson said. “Our international customers were 20 percent of that, and now it’s nothing. Australia was a huge customer of ours, and would keep us going during our winter. Now nothing.”

Willson said orders from dealers in Australia, Spain, Canada, France, the U.K., Germany and Singapore dramatically dropped off at the announcement of U.S. tariff increases and stock market uncertainty.

“People I’ve worked with for years straight up told me that they were cutting U.S. orders because of all of this sh**,” Willson said. “Everyone feels bad about it, but we’re all trying to stay in business. It’s crazy.”

Willson said she feels guilty for having to let so many employees go, and that paying out their unused vacation time, benefits, and health insurance was yet another immediate strain on Oveja Negra's books. Currently the company is staffed by the three owners and three employees, plus the two former full-time employees who are now part-time contractors.

“This was a career for people,” she said. “These are friends. And we had to do this because there just isn’t any money coming in. We're having strings of zero-income days. At least this way they can get unemployment.”

Willson has been a seamstress for nearly 30 years. When her now-husband Monte asked her to make a bike bag, she jumped at the opportunity. Friends told friends, and from there Oveja Negra, which means "black sheep" in Spanish, was born. Starting in Leadville, the Willson's eventually moved their operation to Salida where they have a workshop and small storefront. Some of Oveja Negra's most popular bags are the Snack Pack top-tube bag and the Lunchbox handlebar bag.

"You know, we're an American company that buys materials from other American companies," Willson said. "We've always been doing that. And then all of this tariff stuff starts, and now we're struggling to stay in business along with a lot of other small businesses. It's just crazy."

Visit Oveja Negra's website at www.ovejanegrabikepacking.com, and check out their Facebook and Instagram pages.

By Steve Lares

Multiply this by tens of thousands of small companies and you start seeing the Big Picture.

[mister_coffee]

... we may still be headed for bad times; like a repeat of 2008.

I think you are very optimistic.

[just-jim]

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Here is a very good explanation of how bond prices and yields work….in conjunction with debt. And why - in spite of FELON donnie backing off most of his idiotic tariff policies - we may still be headed for bad times; like a repeat of 2008.

From the PBS Newshour tonight 5/13.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what- ... he-economy

If you need a reminder….the S+P dropped 37% that year. The Dow dropped 32%. It took 3+ years for the markets to gain that loss back.
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